Mexico's Future

[Jonathan Singh]

At the moment, it's not looking so bright. Cartel violence against the government, extensive corruption, poverty, and the decay of their oil infrastructure. It's hard to imagine how they might pull themselves out of this mess.

I'm currently reading The Next 100 Years by George Friedman at Stratfor. One of his predictions I like the most is that Mexico will eventually challenge US power by the end of the 21st century. He argues that their growing population and excellent geographic location between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans will eventually turn them into a major power.

I know it's hard to imagine Mexico as a major power now, but let's think about this. What would it take for Mexico to solve its present problems and move in this direction? What signs should we watch for?

[Eric Garland]

This is a very timely question. Actually, I'm not really looking at the drug violence but because of the trouble with their oil business. Mexico's Cantarell oil field may have a catastrophic plunge in output, going forth indefinitely. Some analysts are looking at this as the trigger of $200 a barrel oil and serious disruptions for all of North American... in the near-term future.

I think George's book is great, but 100 year deltas are always a bit wobbly. I'm not sure quite how he sees Mexico as a peer to the United States. Competitor, sure, but on all levels population, economy, culture, and science that's a tall order.

HOWEVER, heck, let's go out on a limb and look at what Mexico would have to do:

Develop a culture of entrepreneurialism. Right now there's a mix of exploitation of natural resources and subsistence agriculture. If they learn from TelMex and Cemex and keep creating new world-class businesses, things will turn around impressively.

Strengthen ties with their northern neighbors. Billions of dollars flow to Mexico through remittances. They need to make sure lots of their people go north, send money home, and re-invest that money in other society-building enterprises.

Become a regional leader to their southern allies. Already Brazil is the number one military power in South America, working actively to keep security issues under control and away from the influence of the gringos to the north. Mexico would gain power and influence by reinforcing it's nature as the North American, yet Latin American, source of diplomatic, economic, and military security. Otherwise, the gringos will be tempted to involve themselves.

This is key, interesting stuff.

[Will Robinette]

As Mexico pulls itself out of the mess they're in today, we need to watch to see how the country changes, in all regards. Does Mexico experience a greater sense of nationalism? Do they extend themselves, economically, to other nations? Do they immediatly address thier infrustructure needs? If/When they build their economy and relationships with other nations, how do they change their relationship with the U.S. and how do they address the needs of their military? If Mexico's focus today is protection from itself what will it be tomorrow?

[William Eggers]

Jonathan, hope you are well. I recall discussing this with you on the boat around that time. Bill Eggers